Socio-Economic Impacts and Fiscal Vulnerabilities Following the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in Türkiye

Abstract

The two major earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) that occurred on 6 February 2023, centered in Kahramanmaraş, produced profound socio-economic impacts in southeastern Türkiye. The disaster directly affected eleven provinces, caused widespread destruction, and resulted in more than 50,000 fatalities, while also leading to significant losses in Syria. Approximately 14 million people were directly affected by the physical destruction, and long-term socio-economic consequences are expected to persist. This study evaluates the direct and indirect economic losses caused by the earthquakes within a comprehensive framework, focusing on their impact on production, foreign trade, labor markets, and public finance. In this context, the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model, which enables time-dependent analysis of post-disaster economic impacts, is employed. The findings indicate that the earthquakes weakened regional production capacity, increased employment losses, and significantly expanded public expenditures, thereby deepening fiscal vulnerabilities. Population mobility has also led to structural changes in labor markets and national economic balances. Although reconstruction activities may support short-term recovery, sustainable growth requires integrated policy strategies that strengthen fiscal resilience, restore employment, and enhance long-term regional economic resilience and stability.