Inference on Reported Vehicular Fatal Accidents in Nigeria Using a Bayesian Model

https://doi.org/10.32996/jmss.2021.2.1.6

Authors

  • Olalude Gbenga Adelekan Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic Ede, Osun, Nigeria
  • Mbata Ahamefula Ugochukwu Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
  • Amusan Ajitoni Simeon Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic Ede, Osun, Nigeria

Keywords:

Fatal Accident, Mapping, Empirical Bayes, Poisson-Generalized Gamma, Relative Risk

Abstract

The study introduced a special case of the Poisson-Generalized Gamma empirical Bayes model to survey states in Nigeria with a higher risk of fatal accidents. Monte Carlo error and stationary dynamic trace plots were used to validate model convergence and accuracy of the posterior estimates. The main results included the disease mappings that revealed Ebonyi had the highest risk of road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria with a relative risk estimate of 1.4120 while Abuja had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate 0.5711. In terms of geopolitical region, the risk of road vehicular fatal accident is highest in South-South region with a relative risk estimate of 1.1850 while North-Central had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate of 0.7846. The study is to aid planned government programs to ameliorate vehicular road carnage in Nigeria. 

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Published

2021-06-10

How to Cite

Adelekan, O. G. ., Ugochukwu, M. A. ., & Simeon, A. A. . (2021). Inference on Reported Vehicular Fatal Accidents in Nigeria Using a Bayesian Model. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 2(1), 53-61. https://doi.org/10.32996/jmss.2021.2.1.6