Forecasting CO₂ Emissions Per Capita in the Philippines Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Forecasting carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions per capita in the Philippines is crucial for evaluating individual contributions and informing targeted policies. It also helps anticipate potential environmental and social impacts while facilitating data-driven decision-making. This study analyzes the trends in CO₂ emissions per capita in the Philippines from 1979 to 2024. Various time-series models were constructed to select the best-fit model and to predict per capita emissions for 2027. The data were obtained from the website of Our World in Data. The results revealed a generally upward trend throughout the study period, despite short-term fluctuations and temporary decreases. Moreover, the first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model emerged as the best fit, projecting an increase in per capita emissions to approximately 1.689 tonnes per person by 2027. These findings provide insight into potential future emission trajectories at the individual level and underscore the need for targeted interventions to effectively manage per capita emissions.