Forecasting Theobroma Cacao Value of Production in the Philippines Using Time Series Modeling Approach

Abstract

Cacao production contributes significantly to the Philippine agricultural sector, and having reliable forecasts of its value is necessary to guide policy decisions, investments, and industry strategies. This study aimed to analyze historical trends in the cacao value of production from 2000 to 2025 and forecast production value for 2027 by applying time series models. Using data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, several modeling techniques were tested, including linear, exponential, polynomial (quadratic to sextic), moving average, exponential smoothing, and autoregression. The models were then assessed using the coefficient of determination (R²) and standard error (SE) to determine which produced the most reliable forecasts. The quintic model emerged as the best fit since it provided the most accurate forecasted values and showed strong explanatory power. For 2027, the projected value is 5,070.934 million pesos. These findings give policymakers, agricultural agencies, and those in the cacao industry a reliable reference for anticipating production trends. Based on the results, the study recommends using the quintic model for planning, resource allocation, and program development to help sustain growth and improve the resilience of the cacao sector.