Evaluating the Efficacy of Monetary Policy in Driving Economic Growth in Turkey

Abstract

This paper examines the efficacy of monetary policy in fostering output growth in Turkey by analyzing annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) spanning from 2005 to 2023. The research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal that money supply, considered an indicator of monetary policy in the context of this study, exerts a positive and statistically significant influence on output growth in Turkey in both the short and long term. Additionally, government expenditure has a positive and statistically significant impact on growth in the long term, albeit weaker than the impact of money supply. Lastly, in the long term, inflation negatively affects growth, with statistical significance observed at the 10% level.