Research Article

The Trajectory of Corona-virus and Peoples’ Concern in Africa: A Markov Switching Regression Model Based on Google Trends® Analysis

Authors

  • fatih chellai Faculty of Economics, Commerce and Management; Ferhat Abbas University, Algeria

Abstract

Coronavirus pandemic put more pressures on people concerns and behavior in all countries. The aim is to estimate the dynamic correlations and potential effect of the virus spreading on the dynamic of people's concern in four African countries (South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria). Based on Google Trends analysis and dynamic of the virus outbreak from March 13, 2020 to August 28, 2020, two-state Markov Switching (MS) regression model was fitted. The findings revealed a weak-positive correlation between Google Trends and new confirmed cases for all countries. For causality inference, MS estimation showed a weak effect of the new confirmed cases on the waves of people interest over the study period. We think that virus spreading effect is vanished by other factors (such Media coverage). This work revealed the importance of web search tools (like Google Trends) in providing policy-makers utile information during periods of pandemic and health.

Article information

Journal

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies

Volume (Issue)

1 (1)

Pages

40-49

Published

2020-10-13

How to Cite

chellai, fatih. (2020). The Trajectory of Corona-virus and Peoples’ Concern in Africa: A Markov Switching Regression Model Based on Google Trends® Analysis. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 1(1), 40–49. Retrieved from https://al-kindipublisher.com/index.php/jmss/article/view/542

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Keywords:

Coronavirus, Google Trend, Markov Switching, Concern, Behavior